Intentional Blog on Balls

Random Thoughts

May 23, 2008 — richardbrianwade

A somewhat common refrain from Padre fans is that the Padres had opportunities to better their outfield this off-season, but elected not to. This strikes me as an example of merely looking at the roster now and assuming no effort was made to field a different one. The Padres attempted to re-sign Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron and also made a run at Kosuke Fukudome. That they were outbid for their services means just that. It also means that guys like Edmonds and Hairston were not their first choices. Hairston was ticketed for a role as fourth outfielder and the Padres traded for Edmonds as their fourth choice. I refuse to believe anyone honestly believes the front office’s Plan A was to start the season with Jim Edmonds and Scott Hairston as their starters in center and left field.

I’ve also heard people complaining about Kouzmanoff and some even going so far as to hope he can “bounce back next year.” Really? Through 48 games this year Kouzmanoff is hitting .274/.303/.398, which granted is not what you’d like to see, but through 48 games last year he was hitting .212/.285/.364. He finished with a line of .275/.329/.457 by hitting .303/.350/.498 over his final 97 games. Given that he had such a drastic split last season, can’t we all agree it’s a little ridiculous to write off this season when he’s actually performing better to this point than he was last season?

Another thing I keep seeing that I don’t get is crowing about wasting Headley’s bat by moving him from third base to left field. The positional adjustment from third to left is roughly five runs over a full 700 PA season. It’s not exactly moving from Catcher to Designated Hitter (which is more like a 25 run adjustment). Speaking of Headley, though, am I the only one bothered by his peripherals this year? The drop off in XBH% isn’t particularly troubling because it’s still solid, but the fact that his walk rate has basically collapsed while his strikeout rate has held steady is worrisome. I suppose it’s only 41 games, but his great AA campaign was only 121 games.

I’ve also heard calls for a new plan, one that won’t lead to 17-31 records. I think it’s worth noting that this same “plan” led to 89 wins last season and back-to-back division titles prior to that. Maybe it’s not so much the “plan” as this year’s execution of it.

I’ll post the full list tomorrow, but I wanted to mention it now. I went through a list of all the players that have played in the Majors this year (through I believe Tuesday) and found which team drafted or signed them as amateurs. The Padres were responsible for the fewest players and it wasn’t close as they accounted for only 16 while no other club fell below 20.

Posted in General. Tags: Baseball, Chase Headley, Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres. 1 Comment »

The Alderson Report

May 21, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Sandy Alderson, as I imagine most of you know, does a weekly interview with XX Sports Radio’s Too Much Show. This week’s can be found here. For those who don’t feel like listening to the entire interview right now, I’ll summarize some of the key points.

Asked about Kevin Towers’ comments on Monday, Alderson said he by and large agreed with them and was pleased Towers made them. He did try to clarify, though, that despite the team only having a handful of All-Star caliber players that this team has had recent success with many of the players currently on the roster and that collectively we are not that deficient in talent.

Asked if there was a need to reevaluate the way they evaluate players, Alderson basically said there was not. He said that they must learn from both successes and failures, but that there was no reason to think their fundamental approach is flawed based on a month and a half of poor play.

The hosts then pointed to home runs being down and asked if this meant it was time to discount home runs when evaluating players. Alderson made the rather obvious point that increased scarcity of home runs makes them more valuable if anything.

The hosts followed up by asking about strikeouts and wanted to know why they were up. A greater emphasis on power and walks was suggested by Alderson as a possibility. He also went off on a bit of a tangent saying that the Padres’ lineup has six guys with OBP below .300 and that you can’t score runs like that.

It was then asked why those players were on the team. Alderson called that a good point, but reminded everyone that some of those players have historically had higher OBP or been productive despite low OBP.

This of course returned the conversation to Towers’ comments about wholesale changes, which Alderson seemed to acknowledge as likely if the current players don’t improve.

There was more, but I feel that was the meat of it.

Posted in General. Tags: Home Runs, Interview, Kevin Towers, On Base Percentage, San Diego Padres, Sandy Alderson, Too Much Show, XX Sports Radio. 4 Comments »

Replacement Players Follow-Up

May 13, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Through tonight’s game the Padres are now carrying only four sub-replacement level performers having cut ties with Callix Crabbe, Colt Morton and Jim Edmonds. Their replacements, Edgar Gonzalez, Luke Carlin and Jody Gerut are all out-performing their predecessors thus far.

Relative to replacement level, Gonzalez has been worth 2.4 runs more than Crabbe was, Carlin 3.0 more than Morton and Gerut 4.8 more than Edmonds.

The four sub-replacement level players still on the active roster are Josh Bard, Justin Huber, Khalil Greene and Tony Clark all of whom are within one run of replacement level. Huber and Clark have both only had about a week’s worth of PA’s. Greene has shown substantial improvement recently and Bard had caught far too many games without rest. Things are certainly looking up.

Posted in General. Tags: Baseball, Replacement Level, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres, Statistics. Leave a Comment »

Replacement Players

May 8, 2008 — richardbrianwade

The Padres this season have carried at one time or another fifteen different position players. Eight of them have performed below replacement level offensively.

I suppose the first reaction from those inclined to defend the Padres would be to point to the park, but note that I’m basing my assertion on a statistic that is adjusted for both park and position. A more reasonable point of contention might be that the sample for many of these players is quite small (all in fact). Well, that’s true but my point is how well they have performed thus far, not how well they’re likely to perform in the future or what have you.

Callix Crabbe (39 PA), Colt Morton (18), Jim Edmonds (103), Jody Gerut (6), Justin Huber (34), Khalil Greene (144), Scott Hairston (111) and Tony Clark (31) have all failed to play at a level one would expect from the type of player theoretically readily available to be plucked from the minors or off the waiver wire at any particular time. By my count, that’s five off-season acquisitions and three starters.

Somewhat disturbingly, Morton who currently has a .129 wOBA is actually out-performing his Weighted Mean Pecota projection. The rest, I think somewhat obviously, are all under-performing. Though, in some cases, not by as much as you might expect (or hope, even).

The Crabbe, Clark, Huber and (especially) Gerut lines can be partially forgiven because of the lack of opportunity, but the fact that three of the Padres’ starting eight can’t manage a Replacement Level performance over more than 100 plate appearances is pathetic.

Nobody else in the organization can play shortstop, so short of a trade Khalil is the best we can do there. Edmonds is just an absolute black hole at nearly half a win below replacement just considering his lackluster offensive not even including his less than adequate fielding.

Hairston’s performance is very nearly exactly replacement level and were he playing center rather than left, it would be above it. However, his play in centerfield statistically speaking has actually been worse than Edmonds’. Paul McAnulty who presumably could replace and sometimes has replaced Hairston in left is actually performing above league average with the bat, but his fielding is abysmal. Also worth considering is that Hairston has some degree of potential. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing if his bat heats up with the weather.

Hopefully the Padres can find a way to get improved performances from these trouble spots and given that replacement level would be an improvement, I don’t think that’s too much to ask.

And in case anyone’s interested, here’s the most recent Sandy Alderson interview on XX Sports Radio.

Posted in General. Tags: Baseball, Jim Edmonds, Khalil Greene, Replacement Level, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres, Scott Hairston, Statistics. 1 Comment »

On Eric Sogard

May 2, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Eric Sogard, last year’s 81st pick in the MLB amateur draft, is off to one hell of a start with Hi-A Lake Elsinore. Granted, at 21 going on 22 Sogard is a little old for the level, but it’s only his second year of pro ball. And he appears to be making serious strides. His pro debut was nothing to write home about, but he made the adjustment to wooden bats by hitting around if a little below league average.

Through roughly 130 PA this season having been bumped up a level from Low to High Single A, Sogard is doing basically everything better than he did last year. He has seen an increase in his isolated power, walk rate and line drive rate while simultaneously cutting his strikeout rate significantly. And while there may be no such thing as a doubles hitter, Sogard is at least doing a fine impression of one by hitting a double in 15% of his at-bats.

His overall line of .388/.496/.553 is well above impressive, but it is also not sustainable primarily thanks to a ridiculous .430 BABIP. A .430 BABIP is what you’d expect from a line drive rate over 30%, not Sogard’s 17% which suggests something closer to a .300 BABIP perhaps higher given the lower quality of fielding faced in Single A. And of course, 130 PA isn’t much to go on, but Sogard was a high draft pick and has a mature plate approach, so he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Posted in Player Profile. Tags: Baseball, Eric Sogard, Lake Elsinore Storm, Minor League Baseball, San Diego Padres. 2 Comments »

League & Padres Leaders in April

May 1, 2008 — richardbrianwade

I just thought I’d take a look at the top five for all useful stats followed by the Padres team leader in that category.

Unintentional Base On Balls

Adam Dunn, CIN, 24

Albert Pujols, SLN, 22

Six Tied, 21

Brian Giles, 16

Our top performer is tied for 22nd.

Hit By Pitch

Carlos Quentin, CHA, 6

David Eckstein, TOR, 6

Justin Towles, HOU, 5

Reed Johnson, CHN, 5

12 Tied, 4

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3

Our top performer is tied for 17th.

Singles

Chone Figgins, ANA, 29

Chipper Jones, ATL, 29

Jose Lopez, SEA, 27

Carl Crawford, TBA, 27

Three tied, 26

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 25

Our top performer is tied for 8th.

Reached On Error

Christian Guzman, WAS, 7

Jason Bay, PIT, 5

Corey Hart, MIL, 4

David Wright, NYN, 4

19 tied, 3

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 2

Khalil Greene, 2

Scott Hairston, 2

Our top performers are tied for 24th.

Doubles

Rafael Furcal, LAN, 12

Nate McLouth, PIT, 12

Troy Glaus, SLN, 12

Dustin Pedroia, BOS, 11

David Murphy, TEX, 11

Brian Giles, 7

Our top performer is tied for 45th.

Triples

Orlando Hudson, ARI, 3

Eugenio Velez, SFN, 3

Jose Reyes, NYN, 3

Conor Jackson, ARI, 3

Carl Crawford, TBA, 3

Scott Hairston, 2

Our top performer is tied for 6th.

Home Runs

Chase Utley, PHI, 11

Derrek Lee, CHN, 8

Lance Berkman, HOU, 8

Hanley Ramirez, FLO, 8

Pat Burrell, PHI, 8

Chipper Jones, ATL, 8

Adrian Gonzalez, 5

Our top performer is tied for 28th.

Runs Above Replacement

Chase Utley, PHI, 20.4

Albert Pujols, SLN, 18.9

Nate McLouth, PIT, 18.8

Chipper Jones, ATL, 18.6

Rafael Furcal, LAN, 18.3

Brian Giles, 6.7

Our top performer is ranked 71st.

Posted in General. Tags: April, Baseball, Leaderboards, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres, Statistics, Stats. 2 Comments »

Players Less Valuable Than Jim Edmonds

April 30, 2008 — richardbrianwade

They’re out there. No, really. They are in order (based on runs above replacement) David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Guillen, Travis Buck, Cody Ross, Troy Tulowitzki, Tony Pena, Adam LaRoche, Robinson Cano. It makes me feel better. It probably shouldn’t, but it does. I just thought I’d share it with you on the off chance that it makes you feel better, too.

Posted in General. Tags: Baseball, Catharsis, Jim Edmonds, Replacement Level, San Diego Padres. 1 Comment »

Chargers News: Buddy Nix Retires

April 30, 2008 — richardbrianwade

I find this distressing. I fear Buddy’s retirement will negatively impact the team in the long run. Hopefully Mueller and those who were promoted can do the job.

Posted in General. Tags: Buddy Nix, Football, NFL, San Diego Chargers. Leave a Comment »

All-Star Game Voting

April 29, 2008 — richardbrianwade

I saw the Padres official web site is touting Adrian Gonzalez as a dark-horse ASG candidate. I’d like to ask that Padre fans not vote for any Padres this year. There isn’t one position player on this roster deserving of a spot on the National League All-Star team. Adrian Gonzalez, arguably the most deserving Padre position player (least undeserving might be more accurate), is not even top five among National League first basemen. And yes, that’s with the park accounted for. Brian Giles, the next most valuable in the bunch, is just barely inside the top twenty of NL outfielders. The rest of the team is barely keeping their heads above water with almost every last one of them hovering at replacement level or below. While I doubt many Padre fans were enthusiastic enough to bother voting this year anyway, I just thought I’d remind those of you considering it that you shouldn’t.

Posted in General. Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, All Star Game, Baseball, Brian Giles, Replacement Level, San Diego Padres. Leave a Comment »

NL West: Week in Review (April 21-27)

April 27, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Rk	Team	Overall W-L	Week W-L	Pythagenport Win %	Trend	Comment
1	Diamondbacks	18-7	5-2	.708		The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking like they just might run away with this division. 25 games into their season, the Baby Backs are six games up on second place. Even with their offense crashing down toward league average this week, they still managed to continue winning thanks in large part to their pitching staff which allowed 2.4 runs per game in their five wins. All seven of their games this week were against other NL West teams and their 5-2 record pushed their record on the year to 17-5 against the West. If I might steal a quote from a Padres promotional commercial, “If you want to win the West, you’ve got to beat the West.” Well, that seems to be working out just fine for Arizona.
2	Dodgers	12-13	5-2	.572		Bad news for the rest of the division: Los Angeles is starting to see results consistent with their run differential. After splitting series with Cincinnati and the first place Diamondbacks, L.A. swept the Rockies over the weekend. Their pitching wasn’t exactly dominant, but it was for the most part very solid. Their offense, though, was something approximating dominant as they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, they find themselves chasing a very hot Arizona team and going 5-2 only allows you to keep pace, not make up ground.
3	Giants	11-15	2-4	.324		How do you go 2-4 and actually move up in the standings? Them’s the breaks, I guess. Their record this week shows they’re dedicated to getting back into the cellar and their Pythagenport winning percentage does as well. Unfortunately for them, Colorado and San Diego had different plans for at least one more week. I wouldn’t worry too much, though. They’re not as good as their 9-10 record would suggest and the Rockies and Padres certainly aren’t as bad as their records suggest, so within a week or two, we ought to see this remedied.
4	Rockies	10-15	1-6	.399		Colorado dropped six out of seven contests this week, but at least they can thank bad luck for some of that as half of their losses were of the one-run variety. The four, two and eight run losses on the other hand are still quite ugly. Philly, Chicago and Los Angeles are all good teams, but as the reigning National League champs the Rockies expect to be able to hang with and even beat good teams. They most likely will start to play at a higher level, but with Arizona looking like they might run away with the division, they had better start clicking sooner rather than later.
5	Padres	10-16	1-6	.341		It wasn’t a good week for the Padres. They opened the week in Houston where the Astros outscored them 2 to 1 en route to a 3 game sweep. They then traveled home to drop two one run games to the San Francisco Giants who also outscored them by a ratio of 2 to 1. With the Diamondbacks coming in for a three game series over the weekend, the Padres looked like a good bet to go winless this week, but thanks to a walk-off home run in extra innings by the normally punchless Tadahito Iguchi, the friar faithful were treated to at least one victory in what was an otherwise dreadful seven days.