This is Getting Old

April 25, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Padres hitters once again failed to show up. Randy Johnson is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s at the end of his career and is not the pitcher he once was. PetCo Park in April is a difficult place to hit, but this is getting ridiculous. 2.62 runs per game at home is incredible. I am convinced that the Padres are not this bad offensively. True talent level notwithstanding, they have performed this badly through 13 games.

Last season the Padres averaged 3.99 runs per game at home. They averaged 3.69 through their first 13 home games and 4.04 through their remaining home games. This gives some additional reason to expect improvement, but to match last year’s output they’ll need to average 4.25 runs per home game. That is unlikely at best.

This could be a long year for Padre fans if something doesn’t change significantly.

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Padres Drop Another Close One

April 25, 2008 — richardbrianwade

With last night’s loss, the Padres dropped to 3-6 in one-run games this season. One run games are not decided entirely by luck, but luck factors in more to one-run games than to games decided by more runs. This sounds obvious and that’s because it is. One-run games are more likely to hinge on one play, one pitch, one whatever and as such luck plays into it more than in a blowout.

The presumption going into this season is that the Padres are an above average, or at the very least an average team, so it is reasonable to expect a .500 or better record in the close games. Accepting that premise, then, one can see that a 3-6 record in one-run games is likely due to bad luck. Had the Padres won two of the six contests they dropped by one run, they’d be sitting at 11-12 right now and I very much doubt Padre fans would be doing the Chicken Little impressions they are currently.

That topic is tiresome, so I thought I’d address another topic I’ve heard several fans bring up that I personally find more interesting: batting order. We’ll begin with the starting lineup:

C Josh Bard

1B Adrian Gonzalez

2B Tadahito Iguchi

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff

SS Khalil Greene

LF Paul McAnulty

CF Jim Edmonds

RF Brian Giles

Now, first according to The Book, we must identify our three best hitters. Since this is not a terribly serious exercise, we’ll use this year’s numbers to determine that. They are in order: Adrian Gonzalez, Paul McAnulty and Brian Giles. The three best hitters ought to occupy the three most important spots in the lineup: 1st, 2nd and 4th. Gonzalez is the clear choice for 4th because of his power. Giles and McAnulty are getting on base at the same clip, so McAnulty takes the second spot by virtue of having flashed more power.

Next, we look to fill the third and fifth spots in the lineup with our next best remaining hitters. Those hitters are Josh Bard and Kevin Kouzmanoff. They have similar production, but Bard’s is based more in on-base percentage and Kouzmanoff’s in slugging, so it makes sense to slot them third and fifth respectively.

From there, we just order them in descending order of productivity sixth through eighth with the pitcher batting ninth. That gives us for our lineup

RF Brian Giles

LF Paul McAnulty

C Josh Bard

1B Adrian Gonzalez

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff

2B Tadahito Iguchi

SS Khalil Greene

CF Jim Edmonds

Khalil Greene and Jim Edmonds are similar in ability (well, results this year), so there’s an argument to be made for putting Edmonds ahead of Greene o break up the right-handed bats. The offense has been anemic this year, so it couldn’t hurt to try to squeeze out every last run by fielding a more efficient batting order.

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I’m at a Loss

April 19, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Up 3-1, I turned off the game to watch the UFC PPV. After it was over, I hopped online to check the score. 10-3? Really?

Oh well, I guess. It was nice to see Chris Young looking decent if not at his best. Also, I’m becoming more and more convinced that Giles is going to have a very good year. Other than that, I have nothing positive to add and I think there’s more than enough negativity elsewhere.

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We Was Robbed

April 18, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Colt Morton won that game with a walk-off walk, but the Alfonso Marquez who apparently had money on the game, decided to call that obvious ball a strike. This after calling a pitch down the heart of the plate a ball a half inning earlier to plate a run for the Rockies. It was an absolute disgrace. Marquez owes baseball fans an apology. His work in tonight’s game was an abomination. I’m really tired and I’m going to bed.

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No Support for Germano

April 17, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Justin Germano’s 0-1 record on the season should be enough to convince even the dumbest baseball fan that win-loss records are not a good way to judge a pitcher. Germano has started three games for the Padres. He has pitched at least six innings in all three and thrown seven innings in two. He has allowed a grand total of three earned runs, all three of them in last night’s game. His offense has scored only three runs on his behalf, two of them last night. In seven innings of relief, his bullpen has allowed 13 runs behind him.

Germano should be 3-0. The fact that his teammates have turned all three of his starts into losses is a joke. It seems like the kind of thing that should even out over the course of a season, but it won’t necessarily do so. Germano deserves better.

With that out of the way, at least Brian Giles is doing his job. 2 for 4 with a double and a triple last night. It’s amazing what being healthy will do for you. Hopefully Padre fans get to see the real Giles for a full season. You know, the one that’s a borderline Hall of Famer, not the one who was running around on one leg last season.

And lest anyone think the Rockies thoroughly outplayed the Padres last night, know that the single biggest difference in last night’s game was that Padres pitches had a BABIP .080 higher than their xBABIP and Rockies pitchers had a BABIP .160 lower than their xBABIP.

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That One Hurt

April 9, 2008 — richardbrianwade

If you check the highlight shows or the boxscore, you’ll see that the Giants won last night’s game on a walk off home run in the Bottom of the 11th inning. But if you were watching it, you know the Padres lost this game in the Top of the 6th. Down by two with the bases loaded and no outs, the Padres only managed to come away with one run. One stinking run.

The average number of runs scored in innings where the bases are loaded with no outs is 2.4. With any kind of luck the Padres should have taken the lead or at the very least tied the game that inning. Instead, a booming single by Khalil Greene that should have plated two resulted in one run and an out. “How?” you might ask. Kevin Kouzmanoff thought that left fielder Dan Ortmeier caught the ball at the wall and was forced out at third on the always popular 7-6-5 play.

Well, we still had runners on first and second and only one out, so we still had a chance. Right? Right, that situation on average results in 1 run. However, that was not to be either. Scott Hairston struck out on a questionable check swing call and after a mild protest was immediately ejected from the game leaving us with the immortal Callix Crabbe of the zero career MLB hits in left field instead of our early season home run leader. Now, one could argue that this was a bit of bad luck and in all fairness that’s what it was, but that doesn’t make it any less painful to watch.

Anyway, despite giving the game away in the top of the 6th, we were soon reminded that the Giants were terrible and as such they like to give their opponent second chances. And so it was in the top of the 9th inning that we found ourselves with a tie ball game, runners on first and second and our best hitter at the plate with a 2-0 count. What happened there? Oh, he reached for a ball on the outer half and hit a lazy fly ball the left fielder. Kouzmanoff given the opportunity to make amends for his earlier gaffe battled until he was forced to swing at a pitcher’s pitch with two strikes on him and grounded quietly to third.

After that it was just a matter of time until the Padres’ stellar bullpen allowed a run and allow a run they did when Cla Meredith served up a home run to Bengie Molina, who by the way isn’t very good.

Of course, even in a game like this there were positives to take away. Randy Wolf is looking like a tremendous signing (a bargain one at that). He pitched six strong innings and were it not for his leading off the 7th could have probably thrown two more with his pitch count where it was. And the bullpen authored four scoreless innings themselves before finally giving up the walk off shot to Molina. Also, Giles had a 4 for 5 night, Tony Clark had a masterful pinch hitting appearance and Callix Crabbe got his first Major League hit on a hot smash off the pitcher’s ass. Oh and we’ve got another game today against the same crappy team we should have beaten last night.

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Padres Kick Off Road Trip with W

April 8, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Following a first inning hiccup, Greg Maddux cruised to victory # 346. In his first inning of work, Maddux allowed two hits, two walks and one earned run. Over his next six innings, he allowed only one hit while striking out five and walking none. Cla Meredith, who had not pitched over the weekend, then came in to work a flawless 8th inning.

Then, with a seven run lead, manager Buddy Black went to Enrique Gonzalez to finish the game. Gonzalez responded in what I’m coming to believe is typical Gonzalez fashion by allowing two runs before recording his first out. Fortunately for Padre fans, Gonzalez’ 1:1 run to out ratio only managed to turn the 8-1 rout into a slightly less laughable 8-4 victory.

Offensively, the Padres exceeded their run output from the entire Dodgers series. Adrian Gonzalez had a great day going 4 for 5 with a two run home run that put the Padres ahead for good in the top of the first inning. Khalil Greene also stood out going 2 for 3 with a triple and a sac fly.

Speaking of the offense, I suspect most people haven’t realized how well the Padres have hit this year. This is at least partly due to their strong hitting not consistently translating into run scoring. They are batting as a team .295/.369/.422 which is good for fourth in the Major in 2OPS (which is a better measure than OPS).

Also of note, Padres back up catcher Michael Barret who was removed during the game will make his way to the DL and be replaced by Colt Morton.

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Peavy Shuts Down Dodgers

April 6, 2008 — richardbrianwade

In only his second game this season, Jake Peavy did something he didn’t do in his entire Cy Young Award winning campaign last season; he pitched a complete game.

Were it not for Jim Edmonds flashing a lack of range in center and the incredibly asinine Rule 7.04(c), he likely would have pitched a shutout. Still, it’s hard to complain about two-hitter against Los Angeles (arguably the most talented team in the West).

Peavy, now with 2 wins, 12 strikeouts and an ERA of 0.56, is definitely off to a good start when it comes to defending his crown. The two wins ties him with several others. The twelve strikeouts put him solidly in the top five. And the .56 ERA has him well out in front of the pack.

Jake’s groundball percentage has taken a bit of a fall from last year, but much like the sub-1.00 ERA, that’s probably just a result of small sample size.

The offense despite a hot start was relatively ineffective, but it didn’t matter with Jake on the hill. It was the first time this year the official narrative of “great pitching, poor hitting” actually made stood up, though the luck-based grouping of hits made the offense look better than it really was.

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Germano Stellar in Defeat

April 5, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Last night’s game was disappointing for a number of reasons. Mostly though, it was a disappointment because it wasted a fantastic start by the Padres fifth starter, Justin Germano. Through six innings, Justin allowed no earned runs and only a single unearned run. Unfortunately, the bullpen was not up to the task of holding off the Dodgers for the final three innings. That coupled with an impressive performance by Japanese newcomer Hiroki Kuroda resulted in a 7-1 defeat.

The loss stings, but there are positives to take away from it. Germano, pitching against a team that had seen him before, tossed a gem. Hopefully that’s a sign of real improvement in his game. And being shutdown by Kuroda for seven innings isn’t that troubling. After all, Kuroda is a real talent and the Padres were seeing him live for the first time. The collapse by the bullpen can’t be explained away, but if they’re going to give up six runs in an inning, I’d prefer that it be in an early season game where we weren’t scoring runs anyway.

Hopefully today’s game will be different. With Jake Peavy on the mound, I have a feeling it might be. Go Padres!

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Hairston, Wolf Deliver Series Win

April 4, 2008 — richardbrianwade

Randy Wolf’s Padre debut could not have gone much better. Having allowed only six baserunners and only one run, Wolf turned a lead over to the bullpen after six strong innings. Unfortunately, the bullpen in the personage of Enrique Gonzalez immediately surrendered that lead by putting Jose Cruz on base via balls and allowing him to be plated by a double served up to J.R. Towles.

Luckily for Gonzalez, who vultured Wolf’s W, the Padres would score the following half inning. Then, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman both did what Gonzalez could not and protected the lead they were delivered. Bell continues to be nearly untouchable, but the real story is that Hoffman bounced back from his blown save on Wednesday to secure yesterday’s victory without incident. Hopefully that will silence the future Hall of Famer’s critics at least for a little while.

The offense continued to be solid as a group yesterday despite plating only three runs. Scott Hairston came a home run shy of hitting for the cycle and scored the winning run on a Tadahito Iguchi single in the bottom of the 7th inning. Kevin Kouzmanoff was 2 for 4 and hit a two run home run in the first inning that nearly held up for the entire game. On the other side of the coin, Khalil Greene and Adrian Gonzalez were both hitless and combined to strand five baserunners. Gonzalez’ at bat in the second inning with the bases loaded was especially ugly in that with a 1-0 count, he swung at a pitch out of the zone and in a spot where he couldn’t hope to drive it.

Overall, the first series of the season was a good one, though. The team is hitting a collective .336/.384/.482 and the starting rotation is sporting a nifty 1.82 ERA. Combine that with a 3-1 record and the fact that they’re sitting in first place all alone and this Padre fan couldn’t be happier.

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