Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.
Chargers Offensive Success Rate:
| Overall | 41.0% | 25/61 |
| Pass | 48.5% | 16/33 |
| Run | 32.1% | 9/28 |
| 1st Down | 37.0% | 10/27 |
| 2nd Down | 47.4% | 9/19 |
| 3rd Down | 35.7% | 5/14 |
| 1stPass | 53.8% | 7/13 |
| 1stRun | 21.4% | 3/14 |
| 2ndPass | 62.5% | 5/8 |
| 2ndRun | 36.4% | 4/11 |
| 3rdPass | 27.3% | 3/11 |
| 3rdRun | 66.7% | 2/3 |
| 1st Quarter | 18.2% | 2/11 |
| 2nd Quarter | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 3rd Quarter | 47.6% | 10/21 |
| 4th Quarter | 46.7% | 7/15 |
| 1stPass | 28.6% | 2/7 |
| 1stRun | 0.0% | 0/4 |
| 2ndPass | 54.5% | 6/11 |
| 2ndRun | 0.0% | 0/3 |
| 3rdPass | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| 3rdRun | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 4thPass | 50.0% | 4/8 |
| 4thRun | 42.9% | 3/7 |
Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:
| Overall | 59.1% | 39/66 |
| Pass | 57.8% | 26/45 |
| Run | 61.9% | 13/21 |
| 1st Down | 55.6% | 15/27 |
| 2nd Down | 47.8% | 11/23 |
| 3rd Down | 80.0% | 12/15 |
| 4th Down | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 1stPass | 56.3% | 9/16 |
| 1stRun | 54.5% | 6/11 |
| 2ndPass | 30.8% | 4/13 |
| 2ndRun | 70.0% | 7/10 |
| 3rdPass | 80.0% | 12/15 |
| 3rdRun | N/A | N/A |
| 4thPass | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 4thRun | N/A | N/A |
| 1st Quarter | 61.1% | 11/18 |
| 2nd Quarter | 50.0% | 7/14 |
| 3rd Quarter | 66.7% | 4/6 |
| 4th Quarter | 60.7% | 17/28 |
| 1stPass | 61.5% | 8/13 |
| 1stRun | 60.0% | 3/5 |
| 2ndPass | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| 2ndRun | 42.9% | 3/7 |
| 3rdPass | 60.0% | 3/5 |
| 3rdRun | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 4thPass | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| 4thRun | 75.0% | 6/8 |
Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run. It appears based on the numbers (I haven’t re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt. Obviously that didn’t work. However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards. Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).
I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters. Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half. The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.
On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say? They were outstanding. Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down. When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you’re probably going to win. I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD. They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.
