Padres.com and XX Sports Radio personalities agree: Adrian Gonzalez belongs on the NL All-Star team this season. Now, one might argue that Gonzalez has only been the fourth most valuable National League first baseman by Runs Above Replacement (RAR), but last year’s squad had four first basemen so maybe he does belong.
(A lot of people disagree with choosing the team based on half a season’s worth of results and I respect that, but that’s how I’m going to be breaking down this year’s team today.)
Obviously, the starters will include one each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman and shortstop as well as three “outfielders.” This years numbers suggest those spots ought to be occupied by the followng:
C Brian McCann, ATL
1B Lance Berkman, HOU
2B Dan Uggla, FLO
3B Chipper Jones, ATL
SS Hanley Ramirez, FLO
OF1 Nate McLouth, PIT
OF2 Jason Bay, PIT
OF3 Ryan Ludwick, SLN
Only McLouth and Ludwick appear out of place, but they’re both having fantastic years thus far.
When looking at the bench positions, I decided to use last year’s bench composition as a guideline. That manes one catcher, three first basemen, two second basemen, one third baseman, one shortstop and four “outfielders.” Using RAR, that gives us:
C Geovany Soto, CHN
1B1 Albert Pujols, SLN
1B2 Derrek Lee, CHN
1B3 Adrian Gonzalez, SDN
2B1 Chase Utley, PHI
2B2 Mark DeRosa, CHN
3B Aramis Ramirez, CHN
SS Rafael Furcal, LAN
OF1 Aaron Rowand, SFN
OF2 Pat Burrell, PHI
OF3 Matt Holliday, COL
OF4 Brian Giles, SDN
There are no real surprises save Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto if you don’t follow minor league prospects. Now, one might argue that last year’s roster doesn’t apply to this year’s and that’s a fair point, so I also looked at it from the point of view of having eight back ups (one for each starter) and four floating best player not selected. That gives us a bench like this:
1B2 Derrek Lee, CHN
OF2 Pat Burrell, PHI
OF4 Brian Giles, SDN
As you can see David Wright and Russell Martin squeeze out Adrian Gonzalez and Mark DeRosa, which I think is damn near impossible to argue with. And hey, we still have a deserving Padre on the list, so that’s cool.
June 2, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Other than Utley starting for Uggla, I completely agree with your starters and first stab at the bench. Of course, the actual roster will look nothing like that, thanks to the uninformed masses in Chicago and New York…
June 2, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Ah, but what are you going to do? I liked it better when it was a meaningless exhibition because then I could say, “Oh well, it’s not like it matters anyway.”
June 10, 2008 at 5:41 pm
I’m one of the “A lot of people disagree with choosing the team based on half a season’s worth of results” … and calling McLouth and Ludwick starting All-Star outfields is a classic example of why … but as you say, I understand and respect how you got to that point … I just don’t like it.
The best words I’ve lately which express my view come from Joe Sheehan @ BP …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7627
Bottom Line: if 2008 statistics are a player’s best case, he’s probably not an All-Star.
JS’s OFers = Soriano, Beltran, Holliday … and when I think of each of those guys, I think of “All-Star”.
Also, I’d hope that MLB doesn’t find a way to include Giles without Adrian … Adrian certainly deserves to be on the team … and the team will be better with him as a 4th 1B-man rather than having 7 OFers …
Nice call getting Soto on there … I can/will/do make exceptions for rookies that appear to be doin’ it.
And I’m with Mike … it’s Utley over Uggla any and *every* day … it’s not close and it never will be (ie. I like Uggla, and sure he’s an All-Star, he’ll just never be “better” than Utley and so will never start, baring injury to Utley) … see JS’s article for explanation of “better” …
Great topic, RBW … always fun to ponder … discuss … debate … even argue …
June 10, 2008 at 6:25 pm
I’ll address this topic again this week (maybe tonight) with updated stats and a look at this with career value considered.